Focus area 02 · Simulate — retail & CPG
See the launch before you fund it.
Digital twins of the Mexican consumer: in-silico market simulators that test your concept, price, packaging, and media mix against thousands of synthetic shoppers — before you produce a single box.
−300 M · The problem
"Launch and pray" is a strategy — until it isn't.
Two of three never reach scale
They don't even pass 10,000 units sold — in a market of more than 100 million potential consumers.
The #1 cause is discovered too late
The product doesn't solve a real consumer need — something you learn after paying for R&D, production, distribution, and media.
The decision toolkit is from the last century
Twelve-person focus groups, expensive panels, launch-and-pray. Traditional analytics (MMM, attribution) are correlational and look backwards.
The shopper fragmented
Mexican households now visit 22 channels a year on average — six more than before the pandemic (Kantar Worldpanel).
−600 M · What the simulators do
A family of simulators, one purpose:
make the expensive decision safe — in hours, with zero capital at risk.
Concept, price & packaging
Test a new SKU against synthetic cohorts built to match your buyer: households in Guadalajara, Bodega Aurrera shoppers, e-commerce buyers — before anything hits a mold or a shelf.
Elasticity under attack
Simulate the competitor's reaction and the pull of brand loyalty. Where does demand bend, where does it break — and at what price.
Word of mouth & adoption
Watch recommendations spread — or die — and find the regional bottlenecks before they show up in your sell-out.
Media mix, before the media
Test the plan against the twins, then commit the budget. The error that today costs millions on the shelf costs zero here.
−900 M · How it works
From intuition to causal evidence, in hours.
Build the cohort
AI agents calibrated with Mexican demographic, channel, and consumption data become your synthetic panel — in Spanish, with local shopping logic.
Run the simulation
Concept tests, price ladders, competitive shocks, media plans — hundreds of variants in parallel, while your team takes a coffee.
Read the evidence
Causal signals, not retrospective correlations. What would happen, not what did happen — with every assumption auditable.
−1,100 M · Why now
The window is open — in Spanish.
advertising investment in Mexico in 2025 — much of it still decided on intuition (AVE · CiM · IAB México).
Mexican companies already use AI, but only 7% apply it to advanced processes like innovation and launches (AWS, 2025).
global simulation & synthetic-insights market by 2026 — none of it built for the Mexican shopper.
−1,300 M · Our north-star metric
The share of simulated launches that survive their first year — measured against the 76% market failure rate.
−1,500 M · Narwhal depth
Bring us the launch you're not sure about.
Early partners help calibrate the dataset — and get founding-partner terms. If a simulator can't help your category yet, we'll say so.